January Was So Cold… Even the Real Estate Market Stayed Home

“January is usually slower.”

But this year, with snowfall we haven’t seen in over a decade and ongoing economic uncertainty in the background, even the most motivated buyer found themselves saying, “Let’s just wait until spring.”

That hesitation showed up in the numbers.

Sales came in at 3,082 homes across the GTA — down roughly 19 percent compared to last January. New listings were also down about 13 percent. At the same time, active listings climbed to nearly 18,000 homes, bringing us to about 5.8 months of inventory.

The average selling price landed at $973,289 — about 6.5 percent lower than this time last year and the first time the average price has dipped below $1 million since 2019.

“Condos Are Feeling the Chill”

The condo segment is facing the most pressure right now, and that makes sense in this type of market.

Inventory is sitting around 5.8 months, and the average condo price is roughly $604,759. Buyers are cautious. Condos are taking longer to sell. Sellers are facing stronger competition as inventory builds.

When buyers feel uncertain, they lean toward flexibility and space. Smaller units tend to feel that pressure first.

“But that doesn’t mean the entire market is frozen.”

In fact, mature, high-demand neighbourhoods are still seeing strong showing activity.

Buyers are negotiating, yes — but multiple offers are still happening in certain pockets. The key detail? Even in competitive situations, conditional sales are still common.

That tells us something important.

Buyers are active, and today’s active buyers are disciplined.

They’re not rushing. They’re analyzing. They’re making informed decisions. And that’s a healthier type of demand than panic-driven bidding wars.

“Buyers today are looking for smart entry points with space and relative affordability.”

With the average semi-detached home priced around $1,050,000 and the average detached home around $1,379,000 in 2025, many move-up buyers see a semi as the logical middle ground.

It offers significantly more space than a condo, without the price jump of a detached home.

When you factor in lifestyle and long-term value, that math starts to make sense for many families.

“Why This Matters Heading Into Spring”

Here’s where the opportunity lies.

Prices have come down in recent months. Sellers have more competition than they’ve seen in a while. Inventory is higher. That means buyers currently have leverage.

But markets don’t stay quiet forever.

Historically, when the weather improves, confidence improves. Buyers who stayed home in January start shopping once temperatures rise. Activity builds quickly once momentum returns.

This quieter window could be one of the most strategic entry points before spring accelerates.

If you’ve been thinking about buying this year, this may be the calm before the busier season.

And if you’ve been thinking about selling, now is the time to build the plan—pricing, preparation, positioning—so you’re ready to land successfully when spring demand returns to the market.

Winter slowed things down. Spring will wake it back up.